* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132023 09/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 31 33 33 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 31 33 33 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 2 6 17 28 44 58 60 60 57 57 41 33 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 7 4 0 1 1 0 -4 -2 -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 19 30 80 109 202 189 210 220 226 223 227 239 252 261 275 283 307 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.3 24.5 23.3 22.9 21.8 20.5 26.3 30.1 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 142 139 135 127 108 97 93 82 69 130 169 153 154 158 168 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -55.3 -55.8 -55.9 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 70 69 65 58 51 45 43 38 31 26 25 26 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 14 13 15 14 13 12 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 29 26 20 32 23 5 -18 -12 -24 -24 34 14 24 -13 -21 200 MB DIV 43 60 63 64 44 44 43 47 44 27 27 -8 -22 -37 -10 -22 5 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 -5 -28 -16 -4 -6 2 14 3 LAND (KM) 1252 1291 1311 1320 1346 1366 1317 1184 996 658 278 -50 -252 -554 -753 -860 -954 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.8 20.7 23.3 26.2 28.9 30.7 31.9 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.5 120.6 121.5 122.4 124.2 125.4 125.7 125.0 122.9 119.4 115.3 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 17 18 19 17 12 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 17 18 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. 6. 8. 11. 16. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -28. -41. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. -1. -8. -16. -23. -28. -35. -40. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 THIRTEEN 09/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.4% 12.3% 9.9% 0.0% 12.6% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.7% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 5.2% 3.5% 0.0% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 THIRTEEN 09/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##