* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 89 90 90 85 80 71 58 58 71 74 73 68 61 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 89 90 90 85 80 71 58 58 71 74 73 68 61 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 88 89 89 87 83 74 60 46 42 45 48 47 43 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 14 18 27 43 64 59 42 27 15 11 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 1 0 1 5 11 12 2 2 6 3 0 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 196 202 208 213 228 233 251 251 255 238 205 202 218 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.4 25.9 25.0 20.9 18.6 16.1 14.5 13.0 12.3 12.2 12.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 136 138 135 132 118 111 88 81 75 70 66 63 63 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.4 -49.7 -51.1 -52.1 -51.9 -50.3 -46.9 -46.6 -46.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.0 2.5 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 52 53 49 42 38 40 50 50 59 72 81 77 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 30 31 32 31 34 31 24 24 29 30 28 25 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -46 -51 -50 -38 11 49 22 43 92 120 225 315 273 245 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 48 33 53 75 82 93 93 67 89 77 95 65 39 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 1 -3 0 0 48 110 178 99 102 38 11 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1651 1529 1390 1273 1124 843 906 1335 1349 822 638 546 507 441 359 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.4 33.6 35.1 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.1 48.0 51.8 56.0 58.5 59.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.0 55.2 54.3 53.5 49.6 43.2 35.6 28.1 22.3 19.3 19.7 23.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 25 29 30 28 24 17 9 5 5 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 12 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -25. -36. -45. -52. -57. -59. -58. -54. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 16. 28. 35. 42. 44. 43. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 2. -2. -12. -15. -9. -8. -11. -16. -25. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. -0. -5. -14. -27. -27. -14. -11. -12. -17. -24. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.1 54.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 16.3% 11.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 3.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 6.7% 4.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 50 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 12( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 89 90 90 85 80 71 58 58 71 74 73 68 61 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 86 86 81 76 67 54 54 67 70 69 64 57 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 82 77 72 63 50 50 63 66 65 60 53 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 70 65 56 43 43 56 59 58 53 46 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 56 47 34 34 47 50 49 44 37 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 66 61 52 39 39 52 55 54 49 42 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 89 80 74 70 65 56 43 43 56 59 58 53 46 DIS DIS