* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132023 09/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 50 50 47 44 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 50 50 47 44 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 51 53 53 49 43 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 3 5 7 12 21 35 41 41 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 0 0 4 6 3 -3 -1 -3 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 63 48 62 166 200 234 218 222 222 238 256 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 26.9 26.3 25.3 24.7 23.7 23.0 22.8 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 143 143 142 140 132 126 116 109 97 90 89 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 73 70 67 63 56 44 35 32 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 30 26 21 17 12 10 0 -16 -51 -61 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 57 42 29 22 31 29 17 18 8 -3 -33 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 3 5 8 9 11 10 8 11 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1400 1458 1522 1563 1607 1663 1688 1629 1562 1506 1475 1501 1530 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.1 18.7 20.7 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.6 122.6 123.3 124.1 125.5 126.7 127.5 128.3 128.5 128.6 129.5 131.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 8 7 8 10 9 5 5 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 9 8 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. -3. -12. -21. -28. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 120.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 THIRTEEN 09/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 22.8% 18.8% 16.2% 10.6% 20.4% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 29.9% 19.8% 6.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 17.8% 12.9% 7.5% 4.1% 7.9% 5.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 12.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 THIRTEEN 09/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##