* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132023 09/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 49 48 45 42 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 49 48 45 42 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 48 47 44 39 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 1 4 9 11 19 28 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 5 5 6 8 3 3 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 27 27 65 126 246 242 225 215 230 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 25.9 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 144 143 140 134 122 112 109 105 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.7 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 68 68 65 57 52 43 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 21 17 16 5 3 1 -15 -35 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 48 28 10 2 26 26 19 15 11 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 5 7 8 9 12 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1482 1519 1560 1606 1655 1700 1650 1577 1529 1508 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.2 17.6 19.2 20.4 21.3 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.1 122.9 123.7 124.6 125.9 126.7 127.3 127.7 128.1 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 8 9 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -5. -12. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 121.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 21.7% 17.6% 14.7% 9.7% 18.6% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 9.1% 4.2% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.4% 7.3% 5.4% 3.3% 6.6% 4.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##