* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 82 78 71 64 56 59 72 77 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 82 78 71 64 56 59 72 77 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 81 77 70 58 46 43 47 47 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 14 20 31 45 62 47 31 22 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 4 3 11 14 0 4 0 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 206 207 220 220 233 247 253 246 230 219 256 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 25.3 24.7 20.4 17.7 15.4 14.4 12.9 12.5 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 131 113 109 87 78 72 70 66 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -49.6 -47.8 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 49 45 43 36 44 53 54 61 81 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 31 30 31 31 26 27 33 33 29 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -52 -45 -24 18 57 66 124 195 250 262 280 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 59 88 74 66 97 100 85 110 74 81 64 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -9 -2 1 23 114 187 94 54 -7 -32 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1380 1265 1124 947 807 880 1327 1348 982 840 616 516 586 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 35.1 36.5 38.2 39.9 42.8 45.6 48.9 52.2 55.4 58.1 59.0 58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.2 54.4 53.6 51.5 49.4 43.3 35.5 28.7 24.7 22.8 22.4 22.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 19 24 26 29 30 24 18 15 9 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -18. -30. -41. -51. -57. -61. -63. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 6. 18. 29. 37. 44. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -8. -8. -1. -2. -9. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -29. -26. -13. -8. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.7 55.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 6( 23) 4( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 84 82 78 71 64 56 59 72 77 72 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 82 78 71 64 56 59 72 77 72 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 75 68 61 53 56 69 74 69 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 64 57 49 52 65 70 65 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 52 44 47 60 65 60 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 61 54 46 49 62 67 62 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 84 75 69 65 58 50 53 66 71 66 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS