* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132023 09/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 37 34 32 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 37 34 32 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 38 35 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 1 4 9 14 17 31 39 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 6 3 4 5 -1 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 38 192 210 233 259 234 222 219 240 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.6 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 139 134 127 118 109 107 104 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 68 65 60 54 49 41 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 16 10 10 3 4 -9 -15 -45 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 22 4 -10 -1 15 31 23 11 3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 6 7 10 10 11 13 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1535 1576 1621 1648 1666 1680 1627 1535 1533 1556 1592 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 18.3 19.8 20.6 21.1 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.0 123.9 124.6 125.3 126.4 127.1 127.3 127.9 128.5 129.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -18. -27. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 122.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 13.7% 12.1% 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.9% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 3.9% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##