* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 75 72 65 56 52 64 73 74 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 75 72 65 56 52 64 73 74 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 76 74 71 63 50 43 45 49 47 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 20 27 37 63 55 33 24 13 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 5 3 3 15 5 -2 1 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 210 219 215 218 242 247 255 237 209 223 245 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.2 25.2 25.4 22.2 18.5 15.9 15.3 14.0 12.9 12.5 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 131 112 114 94 81 73 70 68 65 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -51.1 -50.5 -49.2 -48.4 -47.8 -46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 3.8 3.7 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 43 41 38 37 49 54 57 71 77 73 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 30 31 32 29 25 32 34 32 28 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -45 -23 18 63 86 142 202 255 290 278 243 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 99 67 76 92 97 86 94 100 73 55 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 4 -5 -9 66 153 172 75 8 -11 -11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1228 1085 931 804 763 1083 1558 1076 872 833 628 497 458 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.9 38.3 40.0 41.6 44.3 47.5 51.1 53.8 56.2 58.2 59.2 59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.6 53.3 52.0 49.3 46.6 39.4 31.9 25.8 23.3 23.2 24.1 22.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 22 26 28 30 29 21 13 11 8 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -29. -39. -48. -53. -57. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -0. 8. 20. 30. 36. 42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -4. -11. -2. -0. -5. -12. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -24. -28. -16. -7. -6. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.4 54.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 2( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 78 75 72 65 56 52 64 73 74 70 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 75 72 65 56 52 64 73 74 70 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 70 63 54 50 62 71 72 68 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 67 60 51 47 59 68 69 65 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT