* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132023 09/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 47 45 41 37 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 47 45 41 37 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 46 42 36 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 7 13 19 20 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 8 7 5 4 3 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 26 190 225 256 267 243 224 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.0 25.2 24.8 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 139 134 130 122 114 109 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 62 61 55 50 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 15 14 14 13 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 22 16 11 15 11 -6 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 27 15 20 4 14 21 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 7 9 9 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1576 1617 1663 1682 1699 1696 1629 1570 1577 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.2 18.6 19.9 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.9 124.7 125.4 126.0 126.9 127.4 127.8 128.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -14. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 123.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.87 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 17.3% 14.4% 11.7% 7.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.8% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##