* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 73 68 59 50 52 63 70 71 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 73 68 59 50 52 63 70 71 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 75 71 68 56 45 42 45 47 44 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 21 26 31 48 71 45 29 22 13 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 4 10 12 -6 2 1 -7 -4 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 209 212 223 237 250 258 256 237 203 202 213 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 25.4 25.2 24.4 20.1 17.2 15.4 13.9 13.4 13.5 13.5 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 114 113 107 86 77 72 67 62 61 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.6 -50.9 -51.8 -50.5 -48.2 -46.7 -47.2 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.6 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 38 36 44 53 54 66 82 77 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 31 31 31 26 24 30 32 30 25 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -22 15 54 79 92 135 196 296 321 300 239 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 78 80 75 79 96 76 108 77 73 29 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -11 1 37 114 158 123 84 3 -22 -52 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1102 939 806 788 882 1326 1268 903 838 749 806 755 556 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.7 38.3 39.8 41.4 43.0 45.9 49.2 53.1 56.2 57.1 56.6 57.0 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 51.8 49.8 46.4 43.1 35.4 27.7 23.6 23.6 24.2 24.4 23.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 26 30 30 31 26 18 10 1 1 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -31. -41. -50. -55. -59. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -1. 9. 22. 32. 38. 44. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -8. -11. -5. -3. -8. -16. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -12. -21. -30. -28. -17. -10. -9. -16. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.7 53.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 627.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 75 73 68 59 50 52 63 70 71 64 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 76 74 69 60 51 53 64 71 72 65 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 69 60 51 53 64 71 72 65 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 56 47 49 60 67 68 61 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT