* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132023 09/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 46 45 38 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 46 45 38 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 47 45 40 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 7 13 17 23 29 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 8 7 2 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 188 233 250 253 249 231 211 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 136 129 125 116 109 107 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 59 56 50 44 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 14 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 20 18 19 9 7 -9 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 16 28 10 6 17 27 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 8 9 13 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1606 1652 1690 1688 1688 1620 1542 1501 1506 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.8 18.3 19.7 20.7 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.7 125.4 125.9 126.4 127.0 127.3 127.6 127.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -7. -13. -21. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 123.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.71 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 16.8% 13.1% 10.4% 6.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 7.3% 4.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 8.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 KENNETH 09/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##