* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 09/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 25 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 19 16 16 20 20 24 27 38 38 35 35 32 40 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 -2 -4 -3 -8 -5 -3 1 7 5 0 SHEAR DIR 260 261 253 251 254 260 299 294 291 274 282 291 288 279 278 264 275 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 139 138 138 137 137 135 135 131 123 120 123 124 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 52 53 52 52 48 44 40 37 31 28 25 24 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -5 -1 -4 -1 9 3 6 -6 -23 -30 -31 -33 -17 -16 -6 3 200 MB DIV -51 -27 -26 -42 -37 -35 -40 -32 -23 -21 -16 -18 -13 -30 -18 -8 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 4 8 6 8 9 13 15 9 LAND (KM) 2031 1967 1918 1883 1853 1809 1766 1723 1682 1638 1585 1556 1537 1495 1392 1260 1138 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.6 138.1 138.5 138.8 139.2 139.5 139.7 139.9 140.1 140.4 140.5 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 4 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 21 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -24. -28. -32. -32. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -27. -25. -22. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 137.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 09/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 09/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##