* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 09/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 19 16 21 19 19 21 24 26 28 26 34 38 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 1 1 -2 -4 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 -3 1 7 7 3 SHEAR DIR 268 260 261 274 283 304 317 303 283 276 280 281 268 267 271 277 284 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 142 141 138 136 135 131 123 119 119 117 113 114 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 55 55 56 55 54 48 46 41 38 34 31 26 27 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 0 -2 -6 6 6 3 -7 -13 -35 -36 -39 -24 -22 23 50 200 MB DIV -21 -34 -38 -47 -29 -48 -35 -3 0 26 -11 -34 -14 4 0 -46 -63 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 5 5 4 11 17 15 3 LAND (KM) 1883 1795 1737 1698 1660 1607 1553 1508 1454 1381 1306 1261 1202 1121 1016 929 815 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.5 140.1 140.5 140.9 141.4 141.8 142.1 142.4 142.9 143.3 143.5 143.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 32. 31. 29. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -27. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -21. -23. -22. -20. -19. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 138.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 09/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 09/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##