* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 65 59 50 54 70 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 65 59 50 54 70 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 65 58 47 45 48 46 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 34 41 51 66 46 28 19 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 8 6 -4 1 -2 -6 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 220 239 252 251 256 254 235 199 199 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.2 24.6 21.7 19.8 17.4 15.3 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 108 92 85 77 72 67 64 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -49.4 -49.7 -50.5 -51.9 -50.1 -47.3 -46.7 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 37 34 36 44 56 57 68 80 76 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 32 31 27 27 36 33 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 44 61 81 99 176 254 315 325 309 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 98 74 76 87 98 115 96 87 41 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -14 18 68 127 157 106 96 -8 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 802 807 900 1108 1354 1285 901 802 766 691 533 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.4 42.8 44.4 46.0 49.1 53.2 56.4 56.8 57.5 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 46.1 43.0 39.0 35.0 27.9 23.6 22.5 23.1 23.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 30 33 31 26 20 9 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -22. -31. -42. -49. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -7. 2. 12. 23. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -4. 5. 2. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 13. 11. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -16. -25. -21. -5. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 40.0 49.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 69 65 59 50 54 70 68 67 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 67 61 52 56 72 70 69 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 61 52 56 72 70 69 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 50 54 70 68 67 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT