* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 09/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 19 21 23 18 20 22 24 25 31 30 30 29 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 2 0 -4 -3 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 5 4 8 0 2 SHEAR DIR 258 263 274 290 306 320 308 289 278 273 268 269 269 285 278 280 280 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 140 138 137 136 134 133 126 121 121 121 122 123 126 134 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 51 54 52 52 54 55 55 52 48 44 41 36 31 27 32 33 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -5 -7 0 5 17 1 -2 -22 -29 -38 -39 -9 51 48 30 200 MB DIV -39 -48 -51 -42 -45 -41 -3 5 5 -14 -31 -29 -2 -29 -36 -47 -52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 6 4 3 2 5 1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1756 1668 1611 1573 1544 1501 1475 1445 1420 1368 1328 1343 1360 1307 1203 1084 999 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 15.0 16.0 16.8 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.7 141.3 141.7 142.0 142.4 142.5 142.6 142.6 142.8 142.8 142.4 142.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 6 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -27. -26. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -28. -26. -22. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 139.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 09/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 09/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##