* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 09/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 47 57 65 62 50 38 32 34 38 42 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 47 57 65 43 31 30 30 34 39 34 31 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 35 29 29 30 30 32 31 28 29 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 29 39 43 39 45 39 42 39 46 52 64 63 58 47 39 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 1 -2 0 -5 -6 -9 -4 -1 1 1 4 0 9 11 9 SHEAR DIR 235 214 205 211 197 190 187 218 245 250 248 250 246 250 245 250 231 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 25.1 23.8 25.1 22.9 20.3 16.0 13.3 14.7 17.7 15.9 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 145 140 141 143 108 97 104 90 81 70 66 67 72 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.9 -55.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 -57.2 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 65 66 64 63 63 58 49 42 45 53 51 46 45 44 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 14 16 20 26 29 26 19 13 11 12 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -19 17 27 22 47 67 91 83 47 49 109 78 45 13 0 -46 -88 200 MB DIV 51 104 108 77 117 74 97 17 -18 -12 41 24 -5 -3 0 -34 -24 700-850 TADV 9 7 11 25 18 19 13 8 3 0 -2 -8 -6 -8 -4 0 -6 LAND (KM) 421 467 505 471 403 208 40 -65 -156 -125 -73 107 81 -10 -31 60 53 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.3 31.1 33.3 36.3 39.0 40.7 41.5 42.0 42.7 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.9 75.6 75.4 75.3 75.1 75.4 75.8 76.1 74.9 72.2 69.2 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 8 9 12 16 11 6 8 12 10 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 54 38 28 30 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -8. -9. -6. -5. -4. -5. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 19. 10. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 32. 40. 37. 25. 13. 7. 9. 13. 17. 15. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.5 76.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 09/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 09/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 09/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 40 47 57 65 43 31 30 30 34 39 34 31 36 39 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 42 52 60 38 26 25 25 29 34 29 26 31 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 44 52 30 18 17 17 21 26 21 18 23 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 32 40 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT