* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 59 54 49 51 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 59 54 49 51 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 59 52 46 43 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 39 47 63 67 46 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 3 -5 2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 250 248 252 255 256 232 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 21.8 19.7 18.3 16.9 15.3 13.5 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 93 85 81 77 72 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -49.6 -49.4 -49.9 -51.5 -49.9 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 37 43 51 54 54 69 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 29 29 27 28 34 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 85 101 139 163 240 320 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 80 94 89 99 105 76 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 94 109 154 161 123 85 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 1117 1357 1584 1251 879 762 641 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.8 44.4 45.9 47.5 49.1 53.3 56.9 58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.8 38.9 35.0 31.2 27.4 23.3 23.6 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 32 31 30 27 20 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 29 CX,CY: 24/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -22. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -16. -21. -19. -7. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 42.8 42.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 66.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 59 54 49 51 63 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 62 57 52 54 66 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 56 58 70 74 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 57 69 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT