* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162023 09/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 49 54 61 65 58 42 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 49 54 61 47 33 29 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 42 43 35 29 29 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 37 39 36 40 37 38 43 33 39 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -10 2 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 201 211 193 179 185 184 220 224 236 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 27.3 24.7 24.2 21.1 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 145 140 143 148 147 128 102 98 84 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 62 59 50 47 51 62 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 17 22 24 27 28 22 14 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 31 28 56 81 89 110 68 52 76 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 104 77 112 137 70 79 -30 23 26 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 32 27 10 15 22 23 7 -2 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 464 485 413 342 281 111 -66 -75 -102 12 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.5 32.3 33.8 36.1 38.0 39.1 39.9 40.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.8 75.8 75.7 75.7 76.3 76.9 76.4 76.2 74.0 70.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 10 10 8 6 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 37 29 33 33 29 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 10. -1. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 24. 31. 35. 28. 12. 2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 75.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 49 54 61 47 33 29 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 35 43 48 55 41 27 23 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 34 39 46 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT