* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 56 63 67 68 68 69 77 86 96 102 107 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 56 63 67 68 68 69 77 86 96 102 107 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 48 54 60 65 66 67 73 83 96 108 117 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 9 13 13 14 19 26 23 20 16 6 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 3 6 2 2 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 22 7 348 327 310 293 294 266 258 241 242 247 256 276 262 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 146 146 154 154 154 153 151 155 158 161 165 169 167 166 168 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 68 69 70 64 63 58 59 62 67 69 71 73 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 17 19 23 28 33 36 42 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 70 68 67 54 41 42 37 35 31 43 51 63 68 58 44 200 MB DIV 30 44 30 36 38 52 50 36 25 38 84 67 36 68 69 53 52 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 1 6 6 12 9 14 LAND (KM) 1238 1373 1510 1646 1773 1992 1858 1731 1607 1463 1191 972 793 691 630 665 820 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.9 30.2 31.5 32.8 34.0 36.3 38.7 41.1 43.8 46.5 49.4 51.8 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 11 8 5 8 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 21 21 30 35 48 42 44 35 54 41 60 66 62 58 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 49. 53. 55. 54. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -13. -16. -18. -17. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 16. 23. 25. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 31. 39. 42. 43. 43. 44. 52. 61. 71. 77. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 28.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 28.3% 14.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 34.5% 20.1% 9.1% 5.1% 21.7% 26.2% 31.6% Bayesian: 2.4% 44.6% 14.3% 1.4% 0.7% 9.2% 6.9% 14.7% Consensus: 4.7% 35.8% 16.4% 6.3% 1.9% 10.3% 16.6% 15.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 37 41 49 56 63 67 68 68 69 77 86 96 102 107 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 44 51 58 62 63 63 64 72 81 91 97 102 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 44 51 55 56 56 57 65 74 84 90 95 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 34 41 45 46 46 47 55 64 74 80 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT