* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 51 48 45 54 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 51 48 45 54 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 58 51 46 43 42 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 45 60 67 62 35 21 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 6 -4 -4 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 250 251 253 257 246 216 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 19.7 18.1 17.0 15.8 13.9 12.7 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 85 80 77 74 69 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.3 -49.6 -50.5 -50.6 -48.6 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 44 52 55 52 59 83 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 29 29 27 34 37 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 96 135 196 193 295 342 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 98 94 95 87 109 73 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 83 129 118 159 168 122 12 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1146 1382 1562 1257 977 865 725 769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.2 45.8 47.4 49.3 51.2 55.4 57.4 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.6 34.7 30.8 27.6 24.4 23.2 25.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 32 30 28 23 16 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 30 CX,CY: 26/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -21. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -5. 1. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. 1. 4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -17. -20. -11. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 44.2 38.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 70.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 51 48 45 54 61 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 57 54 51 60 67 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 55 64 71 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 61 68 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT