* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 55 65 70 72 74 79 88 96 100 106 103 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 55 65 70 72 74 79 88 96 100 106 103 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 46 53 60 65 68 73 82 91 97 100 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 8 10 12 13 15 19 20 18 18 10 10 11 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -7 -3 0 3 12 6 4 2 -1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 22 354 345 327 299 309 292 278 261 260 255 257 260 276 286 285 289 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 150 154 154 157 152 154 156 156 156 157 158 161 164 158 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 67 67 65 63 61 60 64 66 72 74 72 74 72 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 15 15 17 18 22 26 31 33 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 65 65 67 55 47 51 39 45 34 32 44 40 48 28 68 200 MB DIV 38 20 29 36 44 57 47 33 31 62 74 45 48 42 38 32 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -2 0 0 -5 -4 -1 -2 3 9 14 10 7 16 LAND (KM) 1404 1552 1699 1837 1964 1871 1725 1603 1496 1322 1139 1001 949 990 1039 1145 1285 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.9 33.3 34.6 35.8 38.2 40.5 43.0 45.4 47.8 49.8 51.3 52.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 8 6 4 8 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 25 31 31 54 40 50 38 44 55 41 42 44 46 48 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 49. 53. 54. 53. 53. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 21. 23. 28. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 30. 40. 45. 47. 49. 54. 63. 71. 75. 81. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 30.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.4% 11.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 35.0% 18.7% 7.0% 4.8% 22.0% 33.9% 44.5% Bayesian: 4.0% 42.1% 12.5% 1.0% 0.7% 8.6% 21.9% 21.8% Consensus: 5.0% 31.5% 14.3% 5.1% 1.8% 10.2% 23.6% 22.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 35 39 46 55 65 70 72 74 79 88 96 100 106 103 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 42 51 61 66 68 70 75 84 92 96 102 99 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 44 54 59 61 63 68 77 85 89 95 92 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 35 45 50 52 54 59 68 76 80 86 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT