* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912023 09/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 22 18 19 23 25 26 28 33 30 35 39 42 47 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -2 -4 -6 0 0 -1 -6 -4 0 3 3 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 313 316 318 317 303 278 257 257 264 274 282 287 283 283 281 286 286 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 135 132 127 122 120 118 117 121 127 128 127 126 127 129 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 60 60 55 51 43 38 34 32 29 30 31 33 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 27 25 16 -11 -15 -18 -19 -22 -21 -21 -9 -1 0 23 19 200 MB DIV -8 -2 12 31 39 8 17 -14 -46 -27 -18 -28 -19 -39 -43 -25 -16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 2 4 0 2 2 1 -1 4 6 7 4 6 2 LAND (KM) 1335 1248 1204 1163 1141 1093 1096 1079 1039 1009 953 879 783 714 633 582 540 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.1 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.1 145.6 146.0 146.1 146.2 145.9 145.9 146.1 146.3 146.9 147.9 149.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 4 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 16 15 10 5 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -40. -40. -40. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -37. -40. -41. -40. -38. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 144.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912023 INVEST 09/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912023 INVEST 09/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##