* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162023 09/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 57 56 46 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 48 34 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 52 45 33 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 37 40 36 36 32 32 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -7 -5 -6 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 184 186 183 187 213 240 239 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.0 27.4 26.7 26.6 24.8 24.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 151 151 129 120 119 102 96 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 -55.7 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 54 50 43 46 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 30 30 27 18 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 77 84 86 97 84 42 25 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 119 85 47 47 29 -29 5 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 13 10 23 19 15 15 5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 351 252 160 66 -24 -98 -149 -111 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.2 35.1 36.9 38.5 39.5 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.1 76.5 76.7 76.9 77.1 77.0 76.0 74.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 31 9 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -8. -17. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 1. -9. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.5 75.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.3% 9.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 56 48 34 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 43 29 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 36 22 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT