* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 60 62 64 68 78 85 93 95 99 94 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 60 62 64 68 78 85 93 95 99 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 46 46 49 56 65 77 89 93 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 14 23 27 28 18 16 10 6 12 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 -7 -4 0 10 4 0 3 -1 2 7 12 SHEAR DIR 331 308 294 299 286 276 270 260 252 248 255 235 275 252 254 266 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 27.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 148 151 153 146 155 155 158 156 157 157 159 160 157 137 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 63 61 59 57 57 61 64 67 69 66 67 66 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 18 19 21 24 29 31 36 37 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 65 57 52 61 48 36 40 36 41 55 54 63 66 88 69 200 MB DIV 28 46 57 49 65 58 47 35 61 85 30 63 46 66 98 131 95 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -3 0 -1 1 1 3 3 8 9 10 11 17 30 33 LAND (KM) 1653 1791 1919 2021 1931 1797 1670 1551 1315 1151 1012 915 886 988 1218 1570 1977 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.9 34.2 35.4 36.6 37.9 40.3 43.0 45.8 48.5 50.6 52.3 53.3 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 12 9 7 4 4 9 14 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 28 40 52 33 49 47 58 40 42 56 61 51 39 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 42. 46. 49. 50. 49. 48. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -8. -13. -17. -16. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 17. 20. 25. 26. 30. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 29. 35. 37. 39. 43. 53. 60. 68. 70. 74. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 32.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 21.4% 12.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 30.5% 16.1% 7.3% 4.6% 17.9% 16.4% 14.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 32.2% 8.9% 1.1% 0.5% 4.1% 1.1% 1.0% Consensus: 5.0% 28.0% 12.4% 5.4% 1.7% 7.3% 10.5% 5.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 60 62 64 68 78 85 93 95 99 94 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 42 51 57 59 61 65 75 82 90 92 96 91 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 45 51 53 55 59 69 76 84 86 90 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 41 43 45 49 59 66 74 76 80 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT