* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 67 68 72 77 84 92 98 101 100 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 67 68 72 77 84 92 98 101 100 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 52 57 65 75 86 96 101 101 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 12 18 16 12 10 14 13 9 16 13 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -5 0 7 7 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 293 285 296 290 270 269 263 252 261 259 256 267 270 277 259 280 283 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 155 148 146 157 157 155 156 156 156 159 160 165 161 159 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 57 60 60 64 65 70 73 70 65 59 54 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 16 18 18 20 24 28 32 36 38 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 61 59 57 51 34 31 21 23 33 35 58 65 72 89 121 200 MB DIV 40 54 51 63 50 22 44 50 108 70 35 48 57 60 24 5 36 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 2 3 4 9 9 11 8 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1822 1988 1949 1834 1725 1567 1445 1326 1143 1009 943 893 793 758 806 930 1102 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 35 52 40 36 57 40 38 57 43 41 59 65 68 67 62 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 22. 30. 37. 43. 47. 51. 52. 51. 50. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 26. 28. 27. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 42. 43. 47. 52. 59. 67. 73. 76. 75. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 34.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 30.6% 15.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 32.0% 18.7% 9.4% 4.8% 17.1% 17.1% 32.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 4.5% Consensus: 3.9% 24.9% 12.6% 6.1% 1.7% 6.1% 11.2% 12.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 67 68 72 77 84 92 98 101 100 98 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 37 47 56 63 64 68 73 80 88 94 97 96 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 40 49 56 57 61 66 73 81 87 90 89 87 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 38 45 46 50 55 62 70 76 79 78 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT