* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 61 68 76 85 90 96 97 96 94 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 61 68 76 85 90 96 97 96 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 41 45 53 62 71 80 87 88 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 9 11 15 17 19 13 12 9 14 10 17 15 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 3 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 7 8 SHEAR DIR 286 285 271 254 247 259 262 252 240 237 261 258 252 273 274 278 300 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 150 145 148 156 155 157 158 155 157 161 159 159 153 151 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 59 58 61 64 66 70 72 68 66 62 62 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 18 22 25 29 31 36 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 54 52 57 47 33 32 28 33 35 34 53 54 76 84 113 200 MB DIV 43 40 48 39 43 44 50 81 72 34 41 42 69 75 67 47 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 0 2 -1 1 0 1 5 9 8 16 8 3 4 LAND (KM) 1876 2047 1935 1833 1736 1569 1448 1305 1129 1058 1062 995 903 935 1055 1129 1167 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 12 13 13 10 10 8 7 6 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 40 43 32 39 47 36 49 58 40 39 47 64 57 43 37 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 29. 36. 42. 46. 49. 50. 48. 47. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 19. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 30. 36. 43. 51. 60. 65. 71. 72. 71. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 35.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.9% 9.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 17.0% 8.0% 3.3% 1.6% 8.3% 15.9% 29.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.2% 1.8% Consensus: 2.1% 12.5% 6.4% 3.1% 0.6% 3.0% 10.3% 10.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 61 68 76 85 90 96 97 96 94 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 46 52 58 65 73 82 87 93 94 93 91 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 41 47 53 60 68 77 82 88 89 88 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 39 45 52 60 69 74 80 81 80 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT