* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912023 09/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 28 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 28 30 28 26 28 41 41 40 39 44 41 43 47 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -7 -3 4 1 -2 -3 0 3 0 3 4 -1 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 304 291 284 275 266 251 250 269 288 300 298 289 300 292 294 286 283 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.5 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 122 120 119 118 117 116 115 117 126 128 129 132 137 138 138 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 50 49 43 36 33 29 28 26 28 28 30 29 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 4 -1 -12 -13 -16 -15 -27 -14 -8 12 15 16 7 8 -24 200 MB DIV 10 14 12 26 27 0 -57 -43 -29 -16 -21 -45 -54 -29 -20 -30 18 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 3 0 2 3 2 4 6 13 12 14 17 13 7 8 LAND (KM) 1160 1111 1090 1083 1101 1134 1139 1132 1094 1000 838 674 546 487 581 768 967 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.4 145.8 145.9 145.8 145.5 145.1 144.9 144.8 145.1 146.1 147.9 150.0 152.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 7 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 22 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -17. -26. -34. -41. -47. -52. -53. -52. -51. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -22. -32. -42. -48. -51. -54. -54. -51. -45. -41. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 145.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##