* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 09/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 42 50 52 51 48 45 42 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 42 50 52 51 48 45 42 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 33 33 34 34 32 29 24 20 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 11 12 12 8 8 15 21 27 34 41 50 52 43 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 0 -4 -2 1 3 5 1 0 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 342 328 304 299 290 307 281 266 251 263 244 247 251 253 263 282 284 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 26.7 26.9 26.4 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 155 156 153 150 138 138 140 132 135 129 123 124 127 128 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 71 72 68 64 61 60 57 57 58 57 54 50 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -33 -28 -27 -20 -25 -34 -31 -27 -16 -8 -3 7 -1 -10 -14 200 MB DIV 40 54 50 47 42 38 38 16 11 15 8 16 16 -6 -10 -17 -23 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -7 -8 -4 -2 -5 -5 0 -4 -4 -1 0 3 4 7 LAND (KM) 1261 1298 1357 1427 1507 1642 1786 1937 2106 2329 2070 1749 1435 1159 894 656 469 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.1 14.9 15.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.4 122.9 125.4 127.8 130.3 132.9 135.9 139.0 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 15 14 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 14 14 15 13 23 5 5 16 3 5 1 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 25. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 46. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 17. 25. 27. 26. 23. 20. 17. 12. 9. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 115.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 25.5% 9.6% 6.2% 1.7% 10.6% 15.4% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 17.3% 9.1% 2.1% 0.6% 9.9% 10.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##