* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 48 54 59 64 65 72 73 77 80 82 83 85 81 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 48 54 59 64 65 72 73 77 80 82 83 85 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 40 44 49 54 60 66 72 75 77 77 78 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 11 9 10 11 9 15 17 21 18 23 19 21 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -5 -4 2 5 7 9 5 1 2 0 1 1 4 13 SHEAR DIR 303 282 263 258 246 251 257 244 255 250 248 236 242 237 239 261 302 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 150 145 149 155 155 156 157 156 157 161 157 151 149 151 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 61 58 61 64 68 69 69 65 60 57 52 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 17 22 24 27 30 31 32 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 47 47 42 26 21 22 32 33 45 48 37 51 46 54 69 200 MB DIV 26 28 33 34 37 38 88 82 66 29 54 63 50 34 17 44 -21 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 5 6 11 5 2 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1930 2043 1935 1829 1731 1593 1478 1355 1278 1195 1121 1071 1119 1161 1185 1241 1346 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 42 40 31 42 48 37 47 72 46 39 43 44 43 36 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 39. 42. 45. 45. 43. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 9. 11. 15. 18. 18. 19. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 34. 35. 42. 43. 47. 50. 52. 53. 55. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 35.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 37.3% 22.3% 13.5% 10.8% 18.5% 15.5% 17.3% Logistic: 22.1% 41.2% 28.6% 20.1% 11.9% 29.3% 24.1% 29.9% Bayesian: 9.5% 40.6% 22.7% 6.2% 4.0% 6.5% 1.2% 1.7% Consensus: 12.6% 39.7% 24.5% 13.3% 8.9% 18.1% 13.6% 16.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 39 43 48 54 59 64 65 72 73 77 80 82 83 85 81 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 48 53 58 59 66 67 71 74 76 77 79 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 41 46 51 52 59 60 64 67 69 70 72 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 31 36 41 42 49 50 54 57 59 60 62 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT