* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912023 09/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 28 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 22 22 24 28 34 33 30 29 29 35 37 38 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 0 5 2 0 -3 0 2 3 6 1 0 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 283 268 258 248 246 256 271 286 292 275 287 286 299 288 282 270 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.5 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 123 122 121 121 120 119 122 128 129 130 139 143 141 142 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 51 47 40 34 30 30 26 27 30 33 35 39 43 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 6 -2 -11 -11 -13 -10 -15 -17 -21 -12 -6 -9 -17 -12 0 12 200 MB DIV 10 11 26 36 14 -32 -55 -13 -31 -31 -33 -29 -38 -22 -28 24 33 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 -1 4 2 5 3 7 6 8 4 9 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1129 1096 1075 1087 1096 1081 1036 977 910 818 724 651 661 770 937 1134 1296 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.1 14.5 13.8 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.1 146.2 146.0 145.9 146.0 146.3 146.7 147.3 148.6 150.4 152.7 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 0 1 3 3 4 8 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 5 5 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 7 18 16 16 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -40. -39. -37. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -22. -31. -38. -42. -43. -43. -41. -37. -31. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 145.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.30 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 6.6% 4.3% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##