* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 09/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 46 47 46 42 38 35 31 28 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 46 47 46 42 38 35 31 28 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 12 10 9 6 14 17 23 27 35 41 42 45 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 4 0 -1 -3 1 -2 4 2 2 1 0 9 3 SHEAR DIR 325 294 290 294 303 305 259 258 271 265 248 247 244 261 254 262 256 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.7 27.9 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.5 27.3 26.3 25.9 25.5 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 156 153 152 144 138 141 140 130 138 127 122 118 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 71 70 62 62 59 59 56 57 55 57 53 51 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -31 -25 -20 -10 -25 -22 -38 -27 -20 -1 0 25 15 21 3 9 200 MB DIV 53 55 48 55 57 33 35 18 0 11 24 47 31 5 2 16 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -7 -6 -4 -1 -5 -6 -2 -4 -7 -2 -4 -1 1 3 6 LAND (KM) 1292 1342 1412 1491 1561 1683 1836 1989 2176 2276 1970 1674 1421 1208 1004 821 683 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.2 14.9 14.8 15.1 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.7 119.0 120.3 121.6 124.0 126.4 128.8 131.1 133.9 136.9 139.7 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 15 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 15 13 16 15 5 13 8 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 21. 22. 21. 17. 13. 10. 6. 4. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 116.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 20.3% 6.5% 4.7% 1.0% 10.4% 8.6% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 13.5% 7.4% 1.6% 0.3% 9.5% 8.3% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##