* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172023 09/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 59 60 62 65 66 69 70 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 59 60 62 65 66 69 70 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 42 45 48 51 52 53 56 58 60 62 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 5 8 7 12 12 21 20 20 20 24 19 24 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -1 -1 2 6 9 6 5 3 4 2 3 1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 253 239 233 230 229 243 265 245 245 247 255 242 254 246 248 257 270 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.4 28.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 149 154 149 148 151 153 152 153 161 160 155 154 158 142 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 57 60 61 63 69 71 66 65 59 57 54 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 17 17 19 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 57 51 46 29 18 20 19 35 37 43 28 37 25 79 102 200 MB DIV 38 30 31 42 31 62 81 90 37 38 50 60 28 15 4 -3 51 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -8 -6 -7 0 1 7 2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1922 1817 1720 1644 1572 1448 1385 1243 1153 1084 998 973 1028 1098 1197 1332 1463 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 9 8 5 5 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 32 40 57 49 38 35 70 54 35 47 53 49 42 36 27 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 34. 39. 42. 44. 44. 42. 41. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 29. 30. 32. 35. 36. 39. 40. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 38.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 SEVENTEEN 09/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 18.9% 12.3% 9.4% 7.2% 12.0% 14.5% 17.0% Logistic: 4.5% 16.9% 9.6% 4.6% 1.6% 9.3% 10.5% 15.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 12.5% 5.2% 0.5% 0.2% 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% Consensus: 3.8% 16.1% 9.0% 4.8% 3.0% 8.3% 9.3% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 SEVENTEEN 09/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 SEVENTEEN 09/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 59 60 62 65 66 69 70 72 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 49 54 55 56 58 61 62 65 66 68 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 43 48 49 50 52 55 56 59 60 62 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 39 40 41 43 46 47 50 51 53 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT