* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 09/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 56 57 58 60 64 64 67 69 70 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 56 57 58 60 64 64 67 69 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 38 41 44 47 49 50 51 53 55 57 59 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 6 9 8 14 14 22 21 20 21 24 18 23 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -1 -1 3 6 8 6 5 3 4 2 3 2 6 1 SHEAR DIR 255 244 235 232 231 243 260 244 244 245 256 242 255 246 247 254 268 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 149 154 149 148 152 154 152 153 161 158 155 152 156 140 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 56 60 61 64 69 71 66 65 60 57 55 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 17 17 19 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 57 50 45 27 18 20 20 35 37 41 25 32 21 77 101 200 MB DIV 35 28 29 43 30 60 79 90 37 37 52 64 28 16 4 0 50 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -8 -6 -7 1 1 7 2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1944 1841 1743 1668 1596 1473 1401 1261 1173 1106 1015 992 1048 1119 1220 1355 1487 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 10 9 10 8 7 9 8 5 5 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 31 39 54 49 37 35 74 54 35 46 52 48 40 35 24 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 44. 42. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 27. 28. 30. 34. 34. 37. 39. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 38.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 17.8% 12.0% 9.2% 7.0% 11.8% 14.2% 16.6% Logistic: 4.3% 14.8% 8.5% 3.6% 1.2% 6.8% 8.4% 11.7% Bayesian: 2.8% 11.3% 4.6% 0.5% 0.3% 2.8% 3.2% 0.9% Consensus: 3.7% 14.6% 8.3% 4.4% 2.8% 7.1% 8.6% 9.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 09/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 56 57 58 60 64 64 67 69 70 69 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 48 52 53 54 56 60 60 63 65 66 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 42 46 47 48 50 54 54 57 59 60 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 37 38 39 41 45 45 48 50 51 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT