* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912023 09/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 20 20 23 29 26 24 24 31 35 37 37 39 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 4 3 -3 -6 -4 0 4 6 6 1 -3 -7 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 283 258 248 241 235 242 256 281 294 285 284 295 295 281 278 271 272 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 127 128 130 130 127 127 127 128 134 141 142 143 148 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 49 46 38 35 33 33 32 33 32 38 38 41 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -16 -21 -24 -17 -13 -12 -8 -13 -2 -13 -16 -22 -1 16 13 200 MB DIV 9 24 36 17 5 -41 -1 -12 -31 -13 -22 -32 -16 2 29 51 56 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -4 -2 1 0 2 4 8 6 3 4 4 -1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1093 1052 1043 1043 1033 992 898 799 706 622 580 632 792 981 1196 1368 1548 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.3 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.5 146.9 147.0 147.0 147.2 147.7 148.6 149.7 151.1 152.7 154.6 156.6 159.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 8 10 11 13 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 10 11 7 2 1 1 1 3 23 17 15 35 61 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -13. -19. -23. -28. -33. -37. -38. -36. -34. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -34. -36. -38. -36. -32. -26. -22. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 146.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.83 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 11.1% 8.4% 5.4% 0.0% 7.7% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.8% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##