* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 09/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 42 45 46 46 46 46 45 45 43 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 42 45 46 46 46 46 45 45 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 28 26 23 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 10 8 7 7 8 16 16 24 24 29 35 41 48 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 2 -2 3 3 4 2 2 5 4 10 7 0 SHEAR DIR 276 273 278 289 294 266 248 252 265 269 284 270 254 247 265 275 285 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.5 29.0 27.9 27.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 151 150 155 144 138 145 146 148 146 144 142 141 135 127 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 67 65 62 61 59 60 57 59 61 61 59 58 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -15 -3 -8 -18 -30 -33 -21 -6 12 18 27 36 37 15 13 200 MB DIV 59 62 50 56 64 48 35 -1 34 23 6 18 32 34 0 -19 -25 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -5 -1 -4 -7 -7 -3 -7 -6 -4 0 0 -1 5 0 LAND (KM) 1412 1506 1576 1666 1746 1909 2068 2261 2337 2081 1834 1599 1388 1197 1030 867 738 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.2 13.7 13.0 12.4 12.2 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.5 121.7 123.0 124.2 126.6 128.9 131.2 133.7 136.5 139.3 141.9 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 13 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 11 17 9 4 12 11 30 13 8 7 15 12 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 31. 37. 41. 45. 48. 50. 50. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 30.6% 13.8% 9.8% 2.2% 10.5% 4.1% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 17.0% 9.8% 3.3% 0.7% 9.5% 6.5% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 09/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##