* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142023 09/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 47 48 47 43 39 35 29 25 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 47 48 47 43 39 35 29 25 22 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 36 36 35 33 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 7 15 18 24 30 36 42 49 56 61 67 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 3 1 -5 2 0 4 5 2 1 1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 293 280 293 293 293 239 260 263 255 238 258 258 263 263 274 272 277 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.7 29.0 27.4 27.3 27.9 27.6 26.7 27.4 26.5 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 149 152 156 139 137 144 142 132 139 129 124 125 125 124 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 59 61 58 59 57 58 56 56 52 50 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -27 -16 -17 -24 -24 -35 -36 -30 -9 -7 11 18 19 5 5 8 200 MB DIV 44 37 36 44 35 34 36 12 18 5 14 22 10 -4 -9 -26 -28 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 -6 -9 -3 -4 -7 -1 1 5 2 8 4 10 LAND (KM) 1438 1522 1584 1654 1730 1878 2036 2223 2231 1920 1614 1348 1115 897 712 551 413 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.6 127.0 129.3 131.6 134.4 137.5 140.5 143.1 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 11 14 22 6 4 24 9 3 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 39. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -34. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 18. 17. 13. 9. 5. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 119.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 18.9% 15.6% 12.8% 0.0% 17.8% 15.3% 9.2% Logistic: 6.7% 26.7% 11.9% 8.4% 1.6% 9.9% 3.7% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 15.8% 9.3% 7.1% 0.5% 9.3% 6.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##