* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142023 09/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 41 44 46 43 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 41 44 46 43 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 31 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 9 6 10 18 20 26 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 4 4 -1 4 4 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 289 297 297 276 241 267 262 263 261 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 29.0 28.8 27.7 27.3 28.0 27.7 27.0 27.3 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 156 153 142 138 146 143 136 138 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 58 57 60 55 51 46 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -19 -17 -25 -27 -29 -33 -28 -14 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 32 39 51 32 3 -12 24 7 27 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1544 1624 1714 1801 1882 2067 2301 2182 1825 1546 1312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.7 124.2 125.5 126.7 129.3 132.2 135.0 138.6 141.5 144.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 12 12 14 14 16 16 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 19 24 9 4 24 10 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 23. 29. 34. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -5. -11. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 11. 14. 16. 13. 9. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 121.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 18.4% 14.8% 12.2% 0.0% 16.4% 12.5% 9.1% Logistic: 4.4% 19.1% 8.7% 5.8% 0.7% 4.9% 1.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 13.2% 8.0% 6.0% 0.2% 7.1% 4.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##