* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 48 49 49 51 55 58 61 60 57 51 50 51 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 48 49 49 51 55 58 61 60 57 51 50 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 51 54 55 53 48 44 42 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 11 13 10 12 17 20 20 25 27 31 31 27 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 3 3 7 7 3 4 6 8 2 5 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 276 247 234 236 255 237 225 236 257 248 237 226 236 234 241 242 256 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.1 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 154 150 147 149 152 153 154 152 162 157 153 152 157 152 130 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 61 64 66 67 69 69 68 65 62 60 61 63 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 16 19 18 18 15 14 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 32 29 28 26 19 35 41 41 35 24 26 46 54 62 48 200 MB DIV 52 52 44 54 86 64 43 42 20 39 46 36 -1 39 1 48 16 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 2 0 3 -5 -3 -2 5 3 LAND (KM) 1703 1638 1577 1522 1472 1336 1181 1073 1042 988 994 1039 1087 1189 1338 1496 1644 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.9 19.0 20.4 22.1 23.3 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.9 43.0 44.1 45.2 47.5 49.2 50.7 51.8 52.8 53.5 53.8 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 7 5 4 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 57 52 40 36 40 65 43 36 48 51 45 40 36 32 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. 32. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 20. 17. 11. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.5% 11.8% 9.3% 7.1% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3% Logistic: 3.7% 10.0% 4.0% 3.1% 1.9% 10.1% 10.2% 11.8% Bayesian: 4.3% 7.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% Consensus: 4.3% 11.5% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% 7.7% 8.2% 9.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 46 48 49 49 51 55 58 61 60 57 51 50 51 54 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 44 45 45 47 51 54 57 56 53 47 46 47 50 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 40 40 42 46 49 52 51 48 42 41 42 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 33 33 35 39 42 45 44 41 35 34 35 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT