* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142023 09/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 36 35 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 36 35 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 7 4 12 16 21 30 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 2 -1 3 3 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 305 297 292 264 263 257 252 253 262 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.5 27.4 27.4 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 150 139 139 146 144 139 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 57 59 57 56 52 52 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -25 -31 -26 -37 -31 -28 -15 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 39 43 33 24 -5 -22 0 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1557 1639 1730 1834 1926 2105 2340 2156 1846 1557 1281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.2 124.6 125.9 127.2 129.6 132.4 135.4 138.6 141.7 144.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 22 20 5 5 20 14 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -13. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 121.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 17.4% 13.8% 11.1% 0.0% 15.2% 12.7% 7.9% Logistic: 2.0% 13.9% 6.2% 3.7% 0.6% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% 4.9% 0.2% 6.1% 4.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##