* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 51 56 59 57 58 53 54 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 51 56 59 57 58 53 54 56 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 50 49 51 53 54 52 50 48 47 48 50 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 15 15 12 18 22 22 25 22 26 29 18 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 1 1 8 4 2 4 2 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 260 247 248 256 254 243 243 251 262 242 228 231 233 240 261 275 296 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 150 149 149 151 155 151 156 155 155 152 154 153 151 147 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 65 66 68 67 69 65 66 61 59 56 56 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 18 20 18 19 17 17 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 38 29 22 22 26 22 21 42 30 35 17 24 20 56 90 136 129 200 MB DIV 41 45 57 67 69 65 35 41 38 44 26 46 26 -1 -49 -31 -33 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 0 -1 -6 -4 -5 1 -3 -5 -1 -1 0 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1716 1662 1607 1546 1494 1355 1220 1112 1053 1020 1037 1069 1063 1073 1125 1193 1256 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 18.0 18.9 20.2 21.9 23.4 24.4 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.2 42.3 43.3 44.4 45.6 47.5 49.2 50.9 52.1 53.1 53.9 54.4 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 7 4 3 6 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 55 47 40 34 45 69 36 40 50 50 41 42 42 35 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -3. -1. -4. -4. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 11. 14. 12. 13. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 41.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.8% 11.2% 9.0% 6.7% 11.1% 12.7% 14.3% Logistic: 2.7% 7.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.4% Bayesian: 2.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.8% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% 5.5% 5.9% 6.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 51 56 59 57 58 53 54 56 57 59 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 48 47 48 53 56 54 55 50 51 53 54 56 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 42 43 48 51 49 50 45 46 48 49 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 35 36 41 44 42 43 38 39 41 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT