* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 32 40 50 58 59 57 54 52 47 43 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 32 40 50 58 59 57 54 52 47 43 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 43 44 42 39 35 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 10 14 14 14 14 18 24 32 28 31 33 35 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 3 2 0 -3 -4 -7 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 69 49 7 1 3 5 9 6 346 348 345 334 320 320 312 312 280 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 161 168 168 165 163 161 155 156 144 145 143 142 142 139 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 73 74 80 80 78 72 70 69 69 67 69 69 73 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 13 13 15 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 56 50 42 41 39 37 28 2 -21 -28 -35 -23 -24 17 35 66 200 MB DIV -14 -32 -18 -8 13 62 92 149 120 108 94 80 50 61 91 91 112 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -6 -7 -3 -2 -3 1 0 -2 -3 2 -1 9 35 44 LAND (KM) 975 1104 1218 1347 1467 1472 1392 1428 1583 1702 1771 1836 1875 1856 1879 2016 2092 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.6 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.1 9.3 11.2 13.4 15.6 17.4 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 31.6 33.9 35.8 37.6 38.9 40.0 41.2 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 12 11 10 11 12 14 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 32 46 57 46 36 31 22 28 31 44 54 51 33 21 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 17. 29. 40. 49. 58. 63. 67. 69. 67. 66. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -12. -21. -26. -31. -34. -35. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 6. 3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 30. 38. 39. 37. 34. 32. 27. 23. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 25.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 26.3% 15.6% 7.9% 6.8% 17.0% 21.6% 54.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 18.9% Consensus: 1.8% 10.7% 5.6% 2.7% 2.3% 5.8% 7.4% 24.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 32 40 50 58 59 57 54 52 47 43 39 41 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 30 38 48 56 57 55 52 50 45 41 37 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 35 45 53 54 52 49 47 42 38 34 36 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT