* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142023 09/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 6 10 18 20 26 34 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 0 2 3 4 4 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 300 296 271 251 249 253 249 256 264 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 145 141 140 140 143 146 146 144 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 57 59 55 52 48 52 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -25 -22 -27 -36 -24 -15 2 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 15 13 9 -5 -22 25 6 14 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 -1 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1606 1700 1791 1877 1966 2176 2302 2018 1741 1474 1224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.0 14.4 13.8 13.3 12.6 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.7 126.0 127.2 128.4 130.9 133.8 136.8 139.8 143.0 146.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 16 7 5 8 10 16 10 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -20. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 123.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 13.9% 10.6% 8.4% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.2% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##