* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142023 09/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 10 15 20 23 28 39 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 0 0 2 1 3 1 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 293 262 252 253 257 253 245 268 286 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 140 139 139 145 146 150 146 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 58 55 55 51 51 53 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -19 -29 -40 -31 -18 -2 5 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 3 10 6 -3 3 21 6 17 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -7 -7 -7 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1709 1808 1905 2001 2098 2356 2140 1893 1557 1333 1235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.5 13.8 13.0 12.3 11.4 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.3 127.7 128.8 129.9 132.7 135.6 138.4 142.3 145.6 148.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 12 11 12 14 14 17 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 12 5 5 5 16 16 16 7 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 23. 30. 36. 40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -15. -26. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 124.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142023 FOURTEEN 09/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##