* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 51 50 52 56 61 59 63 62 66 69 71 82 78 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 51 50 52 56 61 59 63 62 66 69 71 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 45 46 48 49 50 50 51 51 54 59 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 15 17 21 22 20 23 29 26 25 21 14 14 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 8 7 8 5 0 2 2 6 1 0 -2 0 -2 1 6 SHEAR DIR 247 261 259 239 240 250 258 265 251 253 233 233 264 269 282 267 273 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 149 150 152 155 151 155 152 157 158 161 156 154 153 151 149 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 61 64 65 65 67 67 62 60 55 52 46 45 42 45 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 21 24 26 26 28 26 28 28 29 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 29 29 27 33 54 45 53 38 56 47 79 88 28 19 50 200 MB DIV 63 80 75 71 54 19 21 24 33 39 34 21 -55 -68 -15 -17 -9 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 1 -3 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1691 1646 1609 1521 1411 1244 1131 1015 941 910 911 930 1009 1033 1042 1115 1260 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.3 21.6 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.9 46.0 47.2 49.2 50.9 52.5 53.8 54.8 55.5 56.3 57.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 5 1 2 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 47 48 43 46 59 36 42 55 58 57 66 52 46 46 37 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 24. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -18. -19. -17. -16. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 6. 9. 5. 6. 6. 6. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 11. 16. 14. 18. 17. 21. 24. 26. 37. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.9 42.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.6% 9.6% 8.1% 5.7% 9.5% 9.5% 11.3% Logistic: 1.6% 3.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 6.2% 3.6% 3.1% 2.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 50 51 50 52 56 61 59 63 62 66 69 71 82 78 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 48 50 54 59 57 61 60 64 67 69 80 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 43 45 49 54 52 56 55 59 62 64 75 71 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 37 41 46 44 48 47 51 54 56 67 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT