* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 23 31 41 52 54 53 48 49 46 45 41 37 38 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 23 31 41 52 54 53 48 49 46 45 41 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 36 37 36 33 31 30 29 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 12 13 14 13 15 18 23 29 26 24 24 33 32 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 6 1 -3 -4 0 4 2 -4 0 -1 1 3 10 12 SHEAR DIR 346 334 347 5 14 41 31 15 354 340 349 342 330 318 346 16 4 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.7 29.0 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 167 165 163 162 158 156 157 147 152 144 144 141 140 139 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 70 73 77 80 77 78 69 69 64 65 62 64 60 56 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 13 13 15 13 14 13 12 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 42 40 43 46 37 10 -15 -27 -25 -23 -26 30 44 69 35 200 MB DIV -6 0 15 61 81 112 191 133 116 81 60 58 20 15 28 55 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 1 2 0 -4 -2 -5 2 7 23 38 LAND (KM) 1283 1432 1579 1539 1465 1371 1396 1557 1628 1702 1760 1786 1748 1776 1930 2253 2284 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.6 9.4 11.1 13.2 15.2 16.9 18.4 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.4 30.7 31.9 33.1 35.4 37.2 38.6 39.6 40.5 41.7 43.2 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 12 12 10 10 11 10 11 14 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 42 37 33 38 29 25 30 35 47 57 56 37 24 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 5. 16. 28. 39. 48. 55. 60. 64. 66. 63. 62. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -16. -23. -27. -30. -33. -34. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 11. 21. 32. 34. 33. 28. 29. 26. 25. 21. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 28.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.8 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.8% 3.2% 7.5% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 2.5% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 20 23 31 41 52 54 53 48 49 46 45 41 37 38 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 23 31 41 52 54 53 48 49 46 45 41 37 38 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 20 28 38 49 51 50 45 46 43 42 38 34 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT