* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 49 50 50 55 54 53 54 57 58 60 61 63 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 49 50 50 55 54 53 54 57 58 60 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 43 42 42 42 41 41 40 41 40 42 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 21 22 24 26 22 24 24 31 27 22 19 19 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 8 7 7 1 2 -3 3 1 1 0 1 0 -4 4 9 SHEAR DIR 256 247 241 248 251 247 262 259 258 247 244 249 273 301 329 257 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 152 153 153 155 154 154 158 160 159 155 150 150 148 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 63 64 64 63 59 55 52 47 45 47 46 44 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 19 22 21 24 24 23 23 24 23 24 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 33 31 30 37 39 30 28 35 22 52 62 89 105 59 65 200 MB DIV 80 97 72 44 23 10 9 25 33 19 4 -3 -83 -12 -30 2 -14 700-850 TADV 1 3 7 0 4 4 0 3 3 1 -1 -2 0 3 4 6 -8 LAND (KM) 1661 1616 1541 1442 1345 1205 1094 980 931 905 914 962 1067 1121 1145 1221 1376 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.7 45.9 46.9 48.0 49.8 51.6 53.1 54.2 55.2 55.9 56.5 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 9 10 8 7 5 6 6 5 3 2 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 45 43 61 46 37 47 58 57 62 64 43 37 35 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 25. 22. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 2. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 10. 9. 8. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 43.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 8.5% 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% 7.8% 9.4% Logistic: 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.7% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 50 49 50 50 55 54 53 54 57 58 60 61 63 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 47 48 48 53 52 51 52 55 56 58 59 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 43 44 44 49 48 47 48 51 52 54 55 57 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 36 36 41 40 39 40 43 44 46 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT