* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 34 43 51 55 53 54 52 49 46 43 37 35 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 34 43 51 55 53 54 52 49 46 43 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 32 35 36 36 35 33 31 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 14 16 10 15 18 23 21 21 28 26 31 35 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 5 0 -5 0 0 2 1 -1 -1 -3 2 3 6 7 10 SHEAR DIR 344 340 348 2 25 42 18 7 342 342 346 332 324 324 343 348 334 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.9 28.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 167 161 161 158 155 157 152 153 147 149 145 139 138 146 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 68 69 73 77 77 77 74 69 67 65 67 66 67 65 67 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 14 13 14 14 13 11 11 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 45 46 41 40 14 -16 -24 -35 -22 -26 1 34 45 34 0 200 MB DIV -6 17 59 69 90 176 131 85 88 93 76 48 40 53 88 30 24 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 3 0 0 -2 -2 -3 10 33 72 113 LAND (KM) 1427 1565 1605 1535 1474 1423 1488 1492 1539 1613 1657 1658 1632 1680 1869 2120 1945 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.6 10.5 12.2 14.1 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.9 32.3 33.6 34.9 37.0 38.9 40.4 41.5 42.6 43.7 45.1 46.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 11 11 11 9 10 10 10 13 17 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 32 38 35 30 30 27 27 32 43 57 47 63 52 37 23 30 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -0. 5. 16. 27. 37. 46. 54. 59. 62. 63. 61. 60. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 14. 23. 31. 35. 33. 34. 32. 29. 26. 23. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.4 29.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.9 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 18.3% 8.4% 4.3% 3.0% 12.2% 15.0% 30.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 11.1% Consensus: 1.3% 8.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.0% 4.4% 5.2% 13.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 25 34 43 51 55 53 54 52 49 46 43 37 35 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 33 42 50 54 52 53 51 48 45 42 36 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 30 39 47 51 49 50 48 45 42 39 33 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT