* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 45 44 44 48 48 51 51 55 56 58 61 64 68 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 45 44 44 48 48 51 51 55 56 58 61 64 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 39 38 38 39 39 40 42 46 51 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 21 20 27 27 25 28 23 27 20 17 13 6 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 9 7 4 2 1 -3 0 0 3 0 3 1 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 242 243 246 252 253 251 259 248 260 251 256 259 271 286 256 227 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 150 153 153 155 160 161 162 160 157 158 155 153 152 150 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 65 64 63 57 55 48 48 45 47 49 55 61 61 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 19 19 20 22 22 23 22 23 22 23 24 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 39 39 42 57 42 53 37 55 44 77 87 106 127 148 179 200 MB DIV 95 72 53 25 32 2 5 1 24 8 22 -15 -28 -29 6 0 27 700-850 TADV 12 12 6 4 6 1 0 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 2 9 1 6 LAND (KM) 1554 1505 1396 1308 1225 1086 959 879 847 852 867 905 970 1047 1143 1230 1294 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 23.2 23.8 24.5 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.9 46.0 47.2 48.2 49.2 51.2 53.0 54.3 55.4 56.1 56.6 57.0 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 41 68 68 37 51 72 67 64 69 75 53 38 34 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 23. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -23. -23. -23. -21. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -0. -1. -1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 10. 12. 13. 16. 19. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 44.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 43 45 44 44 48 48 51 51 55 56 58 61 64 68 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 44 43 43 47 47 50 50 54 55 57 60 63 67 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 42 41 41 45 45 48 48 52 53 55 58 61 65 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 36 40 40 43 43 47 48 50 53 56 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT