* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 45 49 51 49 48 44 43 40 39 37 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 45 49 51 49 48 44 43 40 39 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 31 31 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 13 8 12 20 20 23 22 26 26 33 32 29 32 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 -4 0 0 0 4 1 -3 0 2 -1 3 12 7 2 SHEAR DIR 338 336 347 12 26 2 6 347 343 337 318 313 307 298 297 294 302 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 27.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 156 156 157 158 154 150 146 145 144 137 141 143 136 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 66 69 73 75 74 77 70 74 71 68 66 67 70 76 79 82 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 14 13 14 13 14 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 41 34 27 19 -7 -22 -26 -33 -21 38 46 54 56 54 91 200 MB DIV -4 40 54 71 116 166 94 95 89 106 70 85 51 39 74 37 137 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 0 2 -3 -2 -2 -1 9 11 -1 -4 48 LAND (KM) 1515 1649 1659 1608 1563 1557 1457 1471 1551 1624 1613 1639 1684 1773 1888 1676 1238 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.1 12.2 14.0 15.9 17.5 19.0 20.9 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.1 33.5 34.9 36.2 38.6 40.8 42.3 43.5 44.5 45.6 46.3 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 11 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 20 27 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 27 28 25 25 30 44 46 45 51 50 37 28 20 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 26. 36. 44. 51. 55. 58. 58. 56. 54. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -28. -29. -29. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 4. 2. 2. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 29. 31. 29. 28. 24. 23. 20. 19. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 30.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 13.8% 5.7% 1.8% 1.0% 5.7% 7.1% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 7.7% Consensus: 0.7% 5.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 2.6% 8.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 27 35 45 49 51 49 48 44 43 40 39 37 37 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 44 48 50 48 47 43 42 39 38 36 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 39 43 45 43 42 38 37 34 33 31 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT