* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 39 41 41 45 44 45 46 47 48 48 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 38 39 41 41 45 44 45 46 47 48 48 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 33 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 20 21 25 24 24 20 24 21 14 12 10 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 9 6 4 3 -8 0 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 247 245 250 241 252 235 250 243 248 266 278 280 286 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 154 153 153 156 160 165 162 156 156 155 153 154 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 64 62 60 57 51 48 43 44 43 43 46 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 20 21 20 22 21 21 21 19 17 15 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 36 43 44 40 39 36 26 30 47 68 74 66 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 47 37 21 27 8 11 0 -10 -30 1 -25 -29 -6 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 4 4 9 7 1 2 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1464 1364 1266 1184 1107 999 882 811 769 773 818 838 819 813 838 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.3 24.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.4 48.5 49.5 50.5 52.4 53.8 55.1 56.2 57.0 57.4 57.9 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 43 69 63 42 42 64 76 68 70 68 60 44 35 33 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. 28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -20. -20. -18. -15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 2. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 46.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 12.5% 8.2% 7.4% 5.0% 8.1% 7.6% 9.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% 1.7% 2.8% 2.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 38 39 41 41 45 44 45 46 47 48 48 47 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 40 42 42 46 45 46 47 48 49 49 48 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 40 44 43 44 45 46 47 47 46 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 33 37 36 37 38 39 40 40 39 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT