* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 28 37 44 53 57 59 58 58 55 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 28 37 44 53 57 59 58 58 55 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 35 37 38 39 38 38 39 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 8 8 16 15 18 16 15 25 21 24 21 20 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 2 0 1 -2 0 0 1 7 7 10 7 10 3 SHEAR DIR 338 338 19 49 20 20 359 360 344 324 320 322 326 310 319 299 286 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.9 28.1 28.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 157 159 155 151 148 146 147 145 144 150 138 139 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 72 73 73 72 75 70 67 67 71 71 73 74 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 17 17 18 19 18 18 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 34 40 37 32 29 7 -16 -17 -31 -24 -4 46 50 59 81 94 114 200 MB DIV 38 52 54 90 136 116 93 98 105 88 77 113 89 46 45 57 48 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 0 1 3 8 7 24 20 10 3 14 LAND (KM) 1694 1672 1617 1566 1542 1426 1345 1366 1418 1478 1476 1484 1487 1449 1418 1449 1560 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.3 12.5 14.0 15.4 16.7 18.3 19.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.1 35.5 36.9 38.1 40.5 42.4 43.8 44.8 45.7 46.7 47.4 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 10 9 10 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 27 24 24 30 29 40 40 32 40 47 40 43 23 20 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 26. 36. 44. 51. 55. 58. 59. 57. 56. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -15. -18. -21. -22. -21. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. 6. 5. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 24. 33. 37. 39. 38. 38. 35. 35. 37. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 32.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 27.6% 13.5% 6.2% 3.8% 9.4% 12.3% 30.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0% Consensus: 1.2% 10.5% 4.7% 2.1% 1.3% 3.3% 4.3% 14.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 25 28 37 44 53 57 59 58 58 55 55 57 58 58 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 36 43 52 56 58 57 57 54 54 56 57 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 31 38 47 51 53 52 52 49 49 51 52 52 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT